Friday, August 31, 2007

Here, have a piece of security for dinner in Gaza

So whats going on it Gaza? Safety and security seem to be Hamas's answer. But under the surface something is happening. Over that last few days reports that sporadic in fighting is reemerging. Two explosive devices near the Gaza old helipad. Khan Younis also had a bout of firefighting. And Fatah organised afternoon prayers outside to make a statement about the anti Fatah sermons taking place in the mosques. Ultimately when the prayers ended violence erupted and 13 people were reported injured, including two foreign journalists. So while things seems better then in June, there is no doubt that things are not in a positive direction. People in Gaza, due to the calm, finally have time to think about what they want for their future and their children's future. Hamas can't seem to give much more due to the lack of will to work with Fatah, or change their attitude towards Israel. In an interview to the Chinese press agency, Xinhua, one Palestinian described the situation in very simple terms "I can't give my child a piece of security to eat, or a piece of security to buy food at school". Another Fatah affiliated said "There is safety and security, but it is limited to Hamas people".
Hamas basically has three options. First, the organization can continue to rule Gaza with its brute force, and by doing so slowly but surely lose its popular support. Secondly, and the most improbable option is that Hamas could find a way to bridge the gap between between its fanatic ideology and the need to live with its neighbour Israel, some sort of long term "hudna", cease fire. In both of the first and second options Hamas will bind itself to controlling only the Gaza Strip, giving Israel a true basis for calling Gaza "Hamastan", disconnecting them selves from the West Bank. This definitely does not coincide with Hamas's larger strategy that it has been planning since the early 90's, to take over the Palestinian Authority. To conclude the most probable scenario, Hamas will attempt to reengage Fatah and and make a mend, call it taking one step back to open the options for the future. To do this a public apology and a withdrawal of its forces will be necessary. Until that happens Hamas will continue to rule the Strip, and try to make things seems normal, like the declaration today that school will be free for everybody. Like everything in the Middle East things can change from one minute to the next, so time will tell.

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