The Biggest Strategic Decision since 2005
The Israeli cabinet declared this week in a unanimous vote that Gaza is now an "enemy entity". What does this mean for Israel in a wider strategic view? What implications will it have for the rest of the region? The Jerusalem Post, Israeli English daily, pointed out today that this decision is intended to complete the Israeli disengagement plan that was implemented in the summer of 2005. Two years later, the Gaza strip has proven to be more trouble, more fanatic and overrun by Islamic radicals.
The decision of the cabinet that points out that there will be continued military and counter-terrorist operations against the terrorist organizations and additional sanctions will be placed on the Hamas regime in order to restrict the passage of various goods to the Gaza Strip and reduce the supply of fuel and electricity. Restrictions will also be placed on the movement of people to and from the Gaza Strip.
Palestinian Unity
Throughout history economical sanctions have rarely been enough to change a political situation, in the case of Hamas in Gaza, various international serving in the region and nonaligned Palestinians predict that the Israeli plan will bring Palestinian factions that have been deeply divided since June. Mahmoud Abbas and other Fatah leaders have deplored the decision by saying that the decision is an oppressive decision that will only tighten the stifling embargo imposed on 1.5 million people in the Gaza Strip and by doing so will only increase their suffering and magnify their tragedy. Seems like Fatah, while tiptoeing around the issue are continuing to send mixed messages. Instead of clearly calling on the silent Palestinian majority to refrain from violence, and blaming Hamas publicly (like any rival politician would do) for the strife on the Palestinians of Gaza. Hamas have called the decree a declaration of war. Fawzi Barhoum, a spokesman for Hamas in Gaza called it an attempt to starve the Palestinian people and force them to accept humiliating formulas. On Sunday there were even reports in the Palestinian press that the Hamas leadership were have internal problems and differences. The distance between the two voices sound semantic to me. So Israel will ultimately face a united Palestinian front, violence will most probably spill over to the West Bank, and indeed an ongoing counter terrorist operation took place this week in a West Bank refugee camp, near the city of Nablus.
Now that Israel has "declared war", Hamas has legitimacy (like it needed it beforehand) to continue to launch rockets in to the surrounding towns of the Gaza Strip.
The Jerusalem post points out today that the intention is to reroute all civilian activities to Gaza via Egypt, including assistance delivered by the vast international community UN bodies, EU, USAID, the Red Cross and all the other do gooders of the world. I am certain that Egypt won't be too happy about the Israeli attempt. And, as expected, on Wednesday the Egyptian Foreign Minister, Ahmed Abul Gheit, rejected the Israeli cabinet's decision concerning his worries for the collective punishment on all the innocent civilian residents of the Gaza Strip. Egypt now realising the need for a more severe dealing with arms smugglers on the border between the Sinai peninsula and the 12 km border with Rafah.
The cards come tumbling down
Following the June Hamas uprising in Gaza and since then the Arab community have refrained from supporting Hamas. Both the Saudi Arabian and Egyptian governments even denied entry
recently to Khaled Mashaal, exiled Hamas leader residing in Damascus, saying the Islamist faction Hamas must first reverse its coup in Gaza. But since Thursday, Arab and Islamic countries have condemned Israel for declaring the Gaza Strip an "enemy entity". In speeches to the United Nations Human Rights Council, delegates from the Middle East and the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) said the humanitarian situation in the occupied territories had deteriorated and would worsen further if Israel cut fuel and electricity to Gaza's 1.5 million people. Pakistan's ambassador Masood Khan, speaking on behalf of the OIC, said that the deteriorating humanitarian and human rights situation in Gaza claiming that the Palestinians face military incursions, extra-judicial and targeted assassinations, restrictions on movement and demolition of houses and infrastructure. The OIC, a 57-nation alliance representing 1.3 billion Muslims, the organization called on Israel to reverse its decision to interrupt basic services in Gaza, of course claiming that it would violate international law.
recently to Khaled Mashaal, exiled Hamas leader residing in Damascus, saying the Islamist faction Hamas must first reverse its coup in Gaza. But since Thursday, Arab and Islamic countries have condemned Israel for declaring the Gaza Strip an "enemy entity". In speeches to the United Nations Human Rights Council, delegates from the Middle East and the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) said the humanitarian situation in the occupied territories had deteriorated and would worsen further if Israel cut fuel and electricity to Gaza's 1.5 million people. Pakistan's ambassador Masood Khan, speaking on behalf of the OIC, said that the deteriorating humanitarian and human rights situation in Gaza claiming that the Palestinians face military incursions, extra-judicial and targeted assassinations, restrictions on movement and demolition of houses and infrastructure. The OIC, a 57-nation alliance representing 1.3 billion Muslims, the organization called on Israel to reverse its decision to interrupt basic services in Gaza, of course claiming that it would violate international law. On the Western Front
The cabinet decision coincided with the visit of the American Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, and down tonning the expected November Peace? summit. Although Rice pointed out that 
the United States views Hamas a terrorist organization. The US has no intention to abandon the innocent Palestinians in Gaza, and are planning to deal with the humanitarian needs of the Gazans. More importantly the US views Gaza and the West Bank as "constituent entities of the to-be Palestinian state". This being the most important part of the statement, due to the face that Israels intentions to channel Gaza to the south have not been approved by the US patron. And as expected UN, and EU were quick to follow suit and deplore the Israeli decision. Even the usually silent Red Cross raised their concerns publicly. Human Rights Organizations have also already started to bash Israel claiming that it is contradictory to International Humanitarian Law. So it seems that Israel will be even more under international diplomatic and media pressure. Usually Israel has not been very successful in withstanding ongoing pressure.
the United States views Hamas a terrorist organization. The US has no intention to abandon the innocent Palestinians in Gaza, and are planning to deal with the humanitarian needs of the Gazans. More importantly the US views Gaza and the West Bank as "constituent entities of the to-be Palestinian state". This being the most important part of the statement, due to the face that Israels intentions to channel Gaza to the south have not been approved by the US patron. And as expected UN, and EU were quick to follow suit and deplore the Israeli decision. Even the usually silent Red Cross raised their concerns publicly. Human Rights Organizations have also already started to bash Israel claiming that it is contradictory to International Humanitarian Law. So it seems that Israel will be even more under international diplomatic and media pressure. Usually Israel has not been very successful in withstanding ongoing pressure.Where is it all leading?
Well for Gaza, the direction is clearer than ever, south means outside influences like Iran and Al-Qaeda. Both are involved today in the Strip, and are motivated for their own reasons. Israel will therefore continue to be a threshold for the global jihad movement. For the the other Palestinian state, West Bank, it will most certainly give the radicals reason to act and implement terrorist activities against Israeli targets whether settler or targets within the green line. Israel in turn will deepen its control over movement, causing international criticism.
The International community will be forced to deepen involvement in Gaza for the "innocent civilians", this will most undoubtedly lead to engagement of Hamas, especially of Scandinavian countries like Norway, maybe even Great Britain whom voiced the need to engage Hamas. Even Tony Blair's aids have been quoted on this issue, even before the Israli decision.
For moderate Arab countries in the middle east this will most definitely be a warning light for them, Muslim Brotherhood already have their eyes on government in Egypt, and the Jordanian monarchy seems to be extremely unstable, the fundamentalists in both will defiantly gain motivation from Hamas and its ability to over through the infidels. In a reality where Egypt and Jordan are under pressure from Internal Islamic factions they will, in order to overcome the threat of being toppled, have to radicalise their views and narrative.
Ultimately Israel will bend to the International pressure and all the other messages sent to the outside world will weaken Israel, Abu Mazen, Egypt and Jordan, leaving the radical voice ringing out loud. These economical sanctions will most probably also be the prelude to an Israeli invasion in to Gaza considering the fact that the Hamas geurilla organization is not accountable to the population in the Strip.
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